Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4443 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 4443 BWI 08:10 → SJU 12:25 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest WN 1104 BWI 20:10 → SJU 00:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4443 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:10	SJU 12:25	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
F9 1774 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:35	SJU 16:40	25%	9%	1.2%	54%
WN 1103 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:05	SJU 21:15	26%	7%	0.7%	55%
WN 1104 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:10	SJU 00:20	30%	8%	0.7%	46%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	BWI 11:35 → MCO 13:55WN 988	50m Orlando	MCO 14:45 → SJU 17:40WN 1656	6h 05m	80%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON