tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:35, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 1176 Delta Flight history → BWI 07:15 SLC 09:50 12% 3% 0.6% 81%
WN 924 Southwest Flight history → BWI 18:25 SLC 21:00 31% 7% 0.6% 50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436 2h 15m Denver DEN 10:05 → SLC 11:45WN 4027 7h 40m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 30m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 2h 50m Chicago MDW 10:00 → SLC 12:25WN 2951 8h 15m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 25m Chicago ORD 08:55 → SLC 11:39UA 1972 7h 24m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 50m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 29m Houston IAH 09:45 → SLC 11:59UA 756 7h 59m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:21 → BOS 08:00DL 5813 · flown by Republic 3h 15m Boston BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464 9h 59m 99% 85%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 07:25 → DEN 09:15WN 935 2h 30m Denver DEN 11:45 → SLC 13:25WN 1731 8h 00m 100% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON