tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4476 Southwest Flight history → BWI 12:25 SMF 15:00 22% 5% 0.5% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973 1h 10m Las Vegas LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122 7h 45m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 34m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 8h 36m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:05 → DEN 07:50WN 4436 1h 10m Denver DEN 09:00 → SMF 10:25WN 1739 7h 20m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 2h 30m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 8h 49m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904 8h 20m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 8h 01m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 44m Houston IAH 10:00 → SMF 12:07UA 2773 9h 07m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:10 → MDW 07:10WN 995 3h 10m Chicago MDW 10:20 → SMF 12:40WN 2094 9h 30m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BWI 19:30 → LAS 21:40WN 976 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 22:40 → SMF 00:20 +1WN 4226 7h 50m 70% 46%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 09:30 → SAN 11:45WN 1181 55m San Diego SAN 12:40 → SMF 14:20WN 1700 7h 50m 69% 45%
AmericanDetails → BWI 19:17 → DFW 21:42AA 1626 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59AA 509 7h 42m 65% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON