tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 1h 10m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 8h 06m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → BWI 08:30 → DEN 10:25UA 2412 3h 00m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 9h 27m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 34m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:00 → IAH 08:16UA 1898 1h 14m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 59m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:36 → ORD 06:59AA 4659 · flown by Republic 1h 15m Chicago ORD 08:14 → SNA 10:33AA 2679 7h 57m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BWI 15:03 → IAH 17:19UA 2095 2h 53m Houston IAH 20:12 → SNA 21:45UA 2761 9h 42m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 46m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 7h 57m 97% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:25 → LAS 08:25WN 973 2h 05m Las Vegas LAS 10:30 → SNA 11:40WN 2092 8h 15m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55UA 590 50m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 7h 47m 69% 57%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 12:25 → SMF 15:00WN 4476 50m Sacramento SMF 15:50 → SNA 17:20WN 3833 7h 55m 66% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON