Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1106 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1106 BWI 08:10 → SRQ 10:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4383 BWI 20:05 → SRQ 22:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1106 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:10	SRQ 10:45	8%	2%	17.5%	93%
WN 4817 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 14:30	SRQ 17:05	18%	6%	17.3%	70%
WN 4383 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 20:05	SRQ 22:45	26%	7%	17.6%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON