Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1119 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1119 BWI 07:00 → TPA 09:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 1123 BWI 19:10 → TPA 21:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1119 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 07:00	TPA 09:25	8%	2%	17.1%	86%
WN 1120 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 08:30	TPA 11:00	10%	2%	17.1%	95%
WN 1121 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 13:50	TPA 16:20	19%	7%	17.1%	63%
F9 1537 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 11:30	TPA 13:59	20%	7%	17.4%	79%
WN 4578 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 21:20	TPA 23:55	22%	8%	9.0%	69%
WN 1997 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 17:05	TPA 19:45	23%	9%	17.0%	61%
WN 1123 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 19:10	TPA 21:55	24%	10%	17.1%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON