tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1125 at 20:55, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1125 Southwest Flight history → BWI 20:55 TYS 22:35 30% 8% 0.9% 38%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743 5h 30m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:25 → BNA 07:20WN 874 2h 50m Nashville BNA 10:10 → TYS 12:00WN 4206 5h 35m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:02 → CLT 06:26AA 1708 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 09:15 → TYS 10:38AA 5950 · flown by Piedmont 5h 36m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:36 → ORD 06:59AA 4659 · flown by Republic 1h 16m Chicago ORD 08:15 → TYS 11:05AA 6445 · flown by SkyWest 5h 29m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148 6h 31m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BWI 06:15 → ORD 07:30UA 709 3h 00m Chicago ORD 10:30 → TYS 13:19UA 6037 · flown by SkyWest 7h 04m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → BWI 10:06 → CLT 11:39AA 1635 2h 45m Charlotte CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont 5h 36m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → BWI 06:08 → DTW 07:39DL 2601 1h 01m Detroit DTW 08:40 → TYS 10:22DL 5347 · flown by Endeavor 4h 18m 94% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON