tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 246 at 12:00, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 246 Southwest Flight history → BWI 12:00 VPS 13:20 13% 2% 0.6% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Baltimore). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048 5h 49m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092 6h 29m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BWI 08:17 → ATL 10:10DL 2562 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 6h 43m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → BWI 05:36 → ORD 06:59AA 4659 · flown by Republic 1h 30m Chicago ORD 08:29 → VPS 11:01AA 4153 · flown by Envoy 6h 25m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BWI 10:33 → ATL 12:24DL 1592 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083 6h 48m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BWI 14:08 → ATL 16:05DL 2711 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 5h 34m 97% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BWI 06:50 → DAL 08:55WN 4403 1h 05m Dallas DAL 10:00 → VPS 11:55WN 205 6h 05m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → BWI 06:15 → CLT 07:53AA 2670 3h 28m Charlotte CLT 11:21 → VPS 12:02AA 2671 6h 47m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON