tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 406 at 14:21, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 406 Delta Flight history → BZN 14:21 ATL 20:14 14% 3% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 6h 39m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 6h 04m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 36m Denver DEN 10:00 → ATL 15:09UA 2424 6h 39m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Salt Lake City SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912 7h 44m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59UA 1693 1h 56m Chicago ORD 13:55 → ATL 17:10UA 356 7h 10m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 12m Chicago ORD 20:09 → ATL 23:30UA 2770 8h 42m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226 3h 53m Minneapolis MSP 18:37 → ATL 22:28DL 1026 8h 59m 99% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 07:35 → MDW 11:25WN 4738 3h 15m Chicago MDW 14:40 → ATL 17:35WN 4592 8h 00m 100% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 16:14 → DFW 20:24AA 1647 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749 6h 05m 73% 50%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:45 → ORD 18:07AA 3177 52m Chicago ORD 18:59 → ATL 22:03AA 2779 6h 18m 71% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON