Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 256 JetBlue Flight history →	BZN 12:37	BOS 19:06	27%	13%	1.1%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	9h 21m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:32 → BOS 06:05 +1DL 696	8h 35m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	54m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	5h 51m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	8h 59m	97%	81%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 16m Denver	DEN 09:40 → BOS 15:44UA 1232	7h 14m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226	3h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → BOS 22:01DL 1502	8h 32m	99%	78%
United Details →	BZN 10:33 → DEN 12:25UA 1824	1h 41m Denver	DEN 14:06 → BOS 20:10UA 597	7h 37m	97%	77%
Alaska Details →	BZN 06:03 → SEA 06:57AS 461	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 08:23 → BOS 16:53AS 306	8h 50m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BZN 13:10 → EWR 19:33UA 2003	52m Newark	EWR 20:25 → BOS 21:53UA 2058	6h 43m	66%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON