tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Charlotte on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 19m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819 5h 57m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 07:35 → MDW 11:25WN 4738 1h 35m Chicago MDW 13:00 → CLT 16:00WN 4343 6h 25m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 7h 37m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 26m Denver DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633 6h 42m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:45 → ORD 18:07AA 3177 2h 47m Chicago ORD 20:54 → CLT 23:59AA 2976 8h 14m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:45 → DFW 10:47AA 1693 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 6h 51m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59UA 1693 2h 31m Chicago ORD 14:30 → CLT 17:59UA 5757 · flown by SkyWest 7h 59m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:53 → MSP 19:13DL 2946 1h 01m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 5h 51m 89% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON