Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1130 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 1130 BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest WN 1133 BZN 16:30 → DEN 18:20 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1130 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 06:10	DEN 07:45	4%	1%	0.6%	86%
UA 1362 United Flight history →	BZN 06:30	DEN 08:24	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 1824 United Flight history →	BZN 10:33	DEN 12:25	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 1131 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 11:15	DEN 12:55	14%	2%	0.5%	73%
UA 2258 United Flight history →	BZN 14:26	DEN 16:20	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
UA 5736 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 17:51	DEN 19:58	17%	5%	0.7%	65%
UA 1322 United Flight history →	BZN 16:29	DEN 18:23	18%	6%	0.6%	58%
WN 1132 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 14:50	DEN 16:35	25%	5%	0.5%	33%
WN 1133 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 16:30	DEN 18:20	29%	7%	0.5%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON