Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1693 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1693 BZN 06:45 → DFW 10:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1647 BZN 16:14 → DFW 20:24 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1693 American Flight history →	BZN 06:45	DFW 10:47	6%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 1653 American Flight history →	BZN 11:39	DFW 15:45	13%	6%	0.8%	77%
AA 1647 American Flight history →	BZN 16:14	DFW 20:24	18%	7%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON