tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 15:53, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 348 United Flight history → BZN 11:38 EWR 18:00 21% 9% 0.9% 77%
UA 2003 United Flight history → BZN 13:10 EWR 19:33 28% 9% 0.9% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 38m Denver DEN 10:02 → EWR 16:00UA 1423 7h 30m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 10m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 8h 51m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741 1h 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:00 → EWR 05:18 +1UA 2397 9h 52m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 9h 34m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59UA 1693 2h 26m Chicago ORD 14:25 → EWR 18:00UA 2329 8h 00m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 8h 30m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → EWR 05:51 +1UA 698 11h 34m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:10 → EWR 01:04 +1UA 2767 8h 38m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:24 → ORD 20:40UA 1744 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 6h 29m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON