Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:27 → IAH 13:31DL 2502	7h 16m	99%	87%
United Details →	BZN 16:29 → DEN 18:23UA 1322	2h 47m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	7h 12m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673	6h 14m	97%	83%
United Details →	BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362	1h 43m Denver	DEN 10:07 → IAH 13:40UA 1129	6h 10m	98%	82%
United Details →	BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59UA 1693	2h 16m Chicago	ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451	8h 20m	99%	82%
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 20:02 → IAH 22:59UA 2813	9h 11m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226	3h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	9h 06m	99%	81%
American Details →	BZN 06:45 → DFW 10:47AA 1693	3h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:33 → IAH 15:48AA 3583 · flown by Envoy	8h 03m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202	48m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954	7h 02m	74%	61%
American Details →	BZN 16:14 → DFW 20:24AA 1647	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24AA 2209	5h 10m	73%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON