tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 9h 32m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705 8h 48m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 9h 00m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:45 → DFW 10:47AA 1693 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → JFK 17:56AA 1049 9h 11m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 3h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697 9h 34m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Seattle SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415 9h 50m 96% 73%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 06:03 → SEA 06:57AS 461 2h 32m Seattle SEA 09:29 → JFK 17:55AS 34 9h 52m 100% 72%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 18:58 → SEA 20:02AS 3498 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Seattle SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22 10h 40m 100% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BZN 17:51 → SFO 19:25AS 2063 · flown by Horizon 2h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:30 → JFK 06:20 +1AS 211 10h 29m 65% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON