tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1136 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1136 Southwest Flight history → BZN 10:15 LAS 11:25 8% 2% 0.6% 93%
WN 1137 Southwest Flight history → BZN 19:15 LAS 20:25 31% 9% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 08:25 → LAS 08:50DL 1698 4h 35m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 59m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 26m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 54m 98% 82%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:00 → LAS 11:55WN 1561 6h 45m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → BZN 10:33 → DEN 12:25UA 1824 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:00 → LAS 17:03UA 716 7h 30m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 06:03 → SEA 06:57AS 461 51m Seattle SEA 07:48 → LAS 10:29AS 612 5h 26m 89% 73%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 1h 37m Seattle SEA 11:05 → LAS 13:42DL 2880 6h 17m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → BZN 14:26 → DEN 16:20UA 2258 2h 45m Denver DEN 19:05 → LAS 20:08UA 655 6h 42m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BZN 14:50 → DEN 16:35WN 1132 55m Denver DEN 17:30 → LAS 18:30WN 1564 4h 40m 72% 48%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 13:50 → SAN 15:30WN 1139 55m San Diego SAN 16:25 → LAS 17:50WN 4111 5h 00m 64% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON