tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 741 at 17:26, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 741 United Flight history → BZN 17:26 LAX 19:07 15% 6% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 23m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 09:35 → LAX 10:34DL 1095 6h 19m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 38m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 04m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Seattle SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914 7h 58m 98% 84%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130 1h 50m Denver DEN 09:35 → LAX 11:05WN 1569 5h 55m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 10:33 → DEN 12:25UA 1824 3h 18m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 42m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:29 → DEN 18:23UA 1322 2h 57m Denver DEN 21:20 → LAX 22:55UA 531 7h 26m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 2h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841 5h 23m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → BZN 16:04 → PDX 16:50AS 2021 · flown by Horizon 47m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 5h 05m 73% 58%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:17 → SFO 17:50UA 1702 53m San Francisco SFO 18:43 → LAX 20:27UA 1427 5h 10m 73% 55%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:24 → ORD 20:40UA 1744 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661 8h 45m 71% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON