tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 49m Minneapolis MSP 13:00 → LGA 16:49DL 2756 8h 49m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 16m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → BZN 10:33 → DEN 12:25UA 1824 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 9h 21m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130 1h 20m Denver DEN 09:05 → LGA 14:45WN 2813 6h 35m 98% 71%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 07:35 → MDW 11:25WN 4738 1h 30m Chicago MDW 12:55 → LGA 16:00WN 2803 6h 25m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59UA 1693 3h 01m Chicago ORD 15:00 → LGA 18:22UA 1617 8h 22m 100% 69%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:45 → DFW 10:47AA 1693 1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:30 → LGA 17:05AA 2388 8h 20m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → BZN 11:29 → MSP 14:44DL 1226 46m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 5h 49m 85% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON