Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4738 at 07:35, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4738 Southwest Flight history →	BZN 07:35	MDW 11:25	6%	2%	0.7%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130	2h 15m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	6h 15m	99%	88%
Southwest Details →	BZN 19:15 → LAS 20:25WN 1137	3h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 23:55 → MDW 05:25 +1WN 2276	9h 10m	97%	76%
Southwest Details →	BZN 11:15 → DEN 12:55WN 1131	2h 55m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	7h 00m	100%	76%
Southwest Details →	BZN 10:15 → LAS 11:25WN 1136	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 12:35 → MDW 18:10WN 2273	6h 55m	100%	73%
Southwest Details →	BZN 16:30 → DEN 18:20WN 1133	2h 30m Denver	DEN 20:50 → MDW 00:15 +1WN 1615	6h 45m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	BZN 14:21 → ATL 20:14DL 406	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 54m	86%	69%
Southwest Details →	BZN 13:50 → SAN 15:30WN 1139	2h 00m San Diego	SAN 17:30 → MDW 23:30WN 3448	8h 40m	96%	63%
Delta Details →	BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678	2h 19m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 09m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON