tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 348 United Flight history → BZN 11:38 EWR 18:00 21% 9% 0.9% 77%
UA 2003 United Flight history → BZN 13:10 EWR 19:33 28% 9% 0.9% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 3h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792 9h 32m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Salt Lake City SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705 8h 48m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 3h 43m Minneapolis MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661 9h 00m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 1h 25m Denver DEN 09:49 → LGA 15:46UA 2446 7h 16m 95% 80%
UnitedDetails → BZN 12:48 → ORD 16:57UA 2202 3h 10m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 8h 51m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741 1h 53m Los Angeles LAX 21:00 → EWR 05:18 +1UA 2397 9h 52m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → BZN 06:45 → DFW 10:47AA 1693 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:10 → JFK 17:56AA 1049 9h 11m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59UA 1693 2h 26m Chicago ORD 14:25 → EWR 18:00UA 2329 8h 00m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:24 → ORD 20:40UA 1744 50m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 6h 29m 71% 56%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 17:51 → SFO 19:25AS 2063 · flown by Horizon 2h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:30 → JFK 06:20 +1AS 211 10h 29m 65% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON