Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1693 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1693 BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1639 BZN 17:03 → ORD 21:30 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1693 United Flight history →	BZN 08:00	ORD 11:59	7%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 2202 United Flight history →	BZN 12:48	ORD 16:57	16%	4%	0.8%	78%
UA 1744 United Flight history →	BZN 16:24	ORD 20:40	22%	6%	0.8%	66%
AA 3177 American Flight history →	BZN 13:45	ORD 18:07	23%	7%	0.8%	64%
AA 1639 American Flight history →	BZN 17:03	ORD 21:30	25%	8%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON