tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 2021 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 16:04 PDX 16:50 16% 5% 2.0% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 1h 49m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 7h 38m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 07:45 → PDX 08:37DL 1203 4h 22m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130 1h 50m Denver DEN 09:35 → PDX 11:10WN 1667 6h 00m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 3h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238 7h 05m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 3h 03m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 39m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 10:33 → DEN 12:25UA 1824 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:46UA 1337 8h 13m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → BZN 16:29 → DEN 18:23UA 1322 3h 07m Denver DEN 21:30 → PDX 23:13UA 1770 7h 44m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 06:03 → SEA 06:57AS 461 1h 48m Seattle SEA 08:45 → PDX 09:49AS 3132 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BZN 16:30 → DEN 18:20WN 1133 1h 05m Denver DEN 19:25 → PDX 21:00WN 1670 5h 30m 73% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON