tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 6416 at 13:16, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6416 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → BZN 13:16 PHX 14:48 20% 7% 0.7% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 08:05 → PHX 08:44DL 1447 4h 29m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 21m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 7h 46m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 3h 01m Denver DEN 11:25 → PHX 12:25UA 1686 6h 55m 98% 81%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 06:10 → DEN 07:45WN 1130 3h 15m Denver DEN 11:00 → PHX 11:50WN 706 6h 40m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → BZN 10:33 → DEN 12:25UA 1824 3h 10m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 7h 02m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → BZN 12:13 → SLC 13:39DL 1971 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 15:20 → PHX 16:04DL 1738 4h 51m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 5h 01m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741 2h 15m Los Angeles LAX 21:22 → PHX 22:59UA 5458 · flown by SkyWest 6h 33m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → BZN 19:15 → LAS 20:25WN 1137 1h 00m Las Vegas LAS 21:25 → PHX 22:45WN 1914 4h 30m 69% 43%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 18:58 → SEA 20:02AS 3498 · flown by SkyWest 48m Seattle SEA 20:50 → PHX 23:49AS 644 5h 51m 61% 40%
AlaskaDetails → BZN 15:05 → SEA 16:05AS 286 50m Seattle SEA 16:55 → PHX 19:53AS 744 5h 48m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON