tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1139 at 13:50, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1139 Southwest Flight history → BZN 13:50 SAN 15:30 32% 6% 0.7% 63%
AS 2050 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record BZN 13:50 SAN 15:34 33% 4% 0.0% 67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Bozeman). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34DL 491 1h 11m Salt Lake City SLC 07:45 → SAN 08:41DL 1177 4h 26m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BZN 06:00 → MSP 09:11DL 1678 2h 27m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 24m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → BZN 08:25 → SEA 09:28DL 4092 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Seattle SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572 7h 51m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → BZN 17:26 → LAX 19:07UA 741 3h 49m Los Angeles LAX 22:56 → SAN 23:54UA 594 7h 28m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → BZN 15:53 → MSP 19:13DL 2946 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 8h 37m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → BZN 08:00 → ORD 11:59UA 1693 1h 01m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683 8h 25m 93% 76%
UnitedDetails → BZN 06:30 → DEN 08:24UA 1362 2h 51m Denver DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940 7h 11m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 22:55 → SAN 23:49DL 1202 5h 19m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BZN 13:45 → ORD 18:07AA 3177 53m Chicago ORD 19:00 → SAN 21:22AA 1924 8h 37m 72% 48%
SouthwestDetails → BZN 19:15 → LAS 20:25WN 1137 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 21:30 → SAN 22:45WN 1227 4h 30m 69% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON