Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 461 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 461 BZN 06:03 → SEA 06:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest AS 3498 BZN 18:58 → SEA 20:02 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 461 Alaska Flight history →	BZN 06:03	SEA 06:57	4%	2%	0.9%	100%
DL 4092 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 08:25	SEA 09:28	11%	4%	0.6%	91%
DL 4174 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 15:54	SEA 16:58	21%	6%	0.6%	84%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	BZN 15:05	SEA 16:05	26%	6%	0.9%	71%
AS 3498 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 18:58	SEA 20:02	26%	7%	0.7%	57%
AS 2141 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	BZN 10:26	SEA 11:23	14%	2%	0.6%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON