Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 491 BZN 05:15 → SLC 06:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 3676 BZN 19:30 → SLC 20:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 491 Delta Flight history →	BZN 05:15	SLC 06:34	3%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1971 Delta Flight history →	BZN 12:13	SLC 13:39	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 3916 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 15:15	SLC 16:40	9%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 3676 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BZN 19:30	SLC 20:55	9%	4%	0.6%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON