Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3038 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 3038 CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2153 CAE 18:01 → ATL 19:13 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3038 Delta Flight history →	CAE 05:35	ATL 06:40	5%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 1010 Delta Flight history →	CAE 10:10	ATL 11:16	10%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	CAE 13:47	ATL 14:56	12%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 1516 Delta Flight history →	CAE 19:39	ATL 20:56	14%	4%	0.7%	47%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	CAE 15:51	ATL 16:59	16%	4%	0.7%	77%
DL 2153 Delta Flight history →	CAE 18:01	ATL 19:13	17%	4%	0.7%	61%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:58	ATL 13:10	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
DL 5061 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 06:40	ATL 07:54	21%	15%	3.6%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON