Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4607 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CAE 11:18	EWR 13:29	5%	3%	3.2%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40DL 3038	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 08:18 → EWR 10:29DL 2397	4h 54m	96%	88%
American Details →	CAE 07:06 → CLT 08:24AA 5870 · flown by Piedmont	2h 19m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:37AA 1819	5h 31m	100%	88%
American Details →	CAE 05:00 → CLT 06:09AA 5855 · flown by Piedmont	1h 51m Charlotte	CLT 08:00 → EWR 09:59AA 1782	4h 59m	99%	88%
United Details →	CAE 06:25 → ORD 07:52UA 4496 · flown by GoJet	2h 59m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	7h 52m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	CAE 10:10 → ATL 11:16DL 1010	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → EWR 15:24DL 2322	5h 14m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	CAE 06:40 → ATL 07:54DL 5061 · flown by Endeavor	2h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	5h 41m	91%	76%
American Details →	CAE 06:06 → ORD 07:30AA 4293 · flown by Envoy	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 10:10 → EWR 13:30AA 2250	7h 24m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	CAE 11:58 → ATL 13:10DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	5h 56m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CAE 16:10 → CLT 17:27AA 6046 · flown by Piedmont	54m Charlotte	CLT 18:21 → EWR 20:30AA 1071	4h 20m	71%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON