tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 6115 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record CAE 12:45 PHL 14:40 18% 8% 0.0% 82%
AA 6084 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record CAE 18:38 PHL 20:36 31% 21% 4.2% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CAE 05:35 → ATL 06:40DL 3038 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 5h 22m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → CAE 05:00 → CLT 06:09AA 5855 · flown by Piedmont 1h 46m Charlotte CLT 07:55 → PHL 09:41AA 3046 4h 41m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → CAE 07:06 → CLT 08:24AA 5870 · flown by Piedmont 2h 36m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PHL 12:43AA 2498 5h 37m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → CAE 06:40 → ATL 07:54DL 5061 · flown by Endeavor 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 44m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → CAE 10:10 → ATL 11:16DL 1010 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 5h 54m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → CAE 08:49 → CLT 10:07AA 6048 · flown by Piedmont 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 13:02 → PHL 14:50AA 2573 6h 01m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → CAE 06:25 → ORD 07:52UA 4496 · flown by GoJet 1h 14m Chicago ORD 09:06 → PHL 12:25UA 2752 6h 00m 93% 80%
DeltaDetails → CAE 11:58 → ATL 13:10DL 5091 · flown by Endeavor 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:05 → PHL 17:12DL 1169 5h 14m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → CAE 10:31 → IAD 12:09UA 4283 · flown by CommuteAir 46m Dulles IAD 12:55 → PHL 14:10UA 3541 · flown by Republic 3h 39m 74% 65%
UnitedDetails → CAE 19:45 → IAD 21:24UA 4259 · flown by CommuteAir 46m Dulles IAD 22:10 → PHL 23:20UA 3502 · flown by Republic 3h 35m 74% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON