Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1044 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1044 CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest DL 3579 CHA 19:19 → ATL 20:19 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1044 Delta Flight history →	CHA 05:35	ATL 06:29	8%	4%	0.8%	100%
DL 1737 Delta Flight history →	CHA 13:10	ATL 14:08	15%	5%	0.8%	85%
DL 3141 Delta Flight history →	CHA 14:50	ATL 15:52	16%	5%	0.7%	77%
DL 3150 Delta Flight history →	CHA 20:23	ATL 21:30	19%	5%	0.9%	65%
DL 3057 Delta Flight history →	CHA 16:07	ATL 17:05	21%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 3579 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 19:19	ATL 20:19	30%	10%	1.4%	51%
DL 5309 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 10:01	ATL 11:02	9%	4%	1.2%	91%
DL 5039 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 06:40	ATL 07:36	16%	12%	3.8%	84%
DL 5448 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 08:24	ATL 09:27	31%	16%	2.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON