Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4580 at 07:04, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4580 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHA 07:04	DCA 08:59	10%	5%	0.6%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29DL 1044	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 52m	100%	88%
American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 28m Charlotte	CLT 08:00 → DCA 09:33AA 1977	4h 33m	100%	88%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:04UA 1381	7h 04m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:00 → DTW 07:55DL 4652 · flown by Endeavor	2h 05m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	5h 28m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:04 → LGA 08:15DL 4890 · flown by Endeavor	3h 05m New York	LGA 11:20 → DCA 12:42DL 5749 · flown by Republic	6h 38m	97%	77%
American Details →	CHA 08:18 → CLT 09:55AA 6105 · flown by Piedmont	1h 20m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → DCA 12:59AA 5527 · flown by PSA	4h 41m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	CHA 10:01 → ATL 11:02DL 5309 · flown by Endeavor	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 55m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	CHA 06:40 → ATL 07:38DL 5039 · flown by Endeavor	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:42DL 737	6h 02m	94%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON