Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5086 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 07:00	IAH 08:23	21%	7%	0.7%	62%
UA 5047 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	CHA 16:42	IAH 18:10	23%	11%	0.9%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Chattanooga). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHA 05:00 → CLT 06:32AA 5866 · flown by Piedmont	1h 10m Charlotte	CLT 07:42 → IAH 09:25AA 1930	5h 25m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	CHA 05:35 → ATL 06:29DL 1044	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 07:30 → IAH 08:35DL 1585	4h 00m	100%	85%
United Details →	CHA 06:00 → ORD 06:59UA 4540 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 08:51 → IAH 11:51UA 535	6h 51m	96%	83%
American Details →	CHA 08:18 → CLT 09:55AA 6105 · flown by Piedmont	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 12:30 → IAH 14:12AA 1919	6h 54m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	CHA 08:24 → ATL 09:28DL 5448 · flown by Endeavor	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	6h 09m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	CHA 16:07 → ATL 17:05DL 3057	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	6h 17m	98%	78%
United Details →	CHA 10:27 → ORD 11:29UA 4407 · flown by GoJet	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 14:15 → IAH 17:20UA 2451	7h 53m	94%	77%
United Details →	CHA 13:53 → ORD 14:55UA 4571 · flown by GoJet	2h 50m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → IAH 20:50UA 1954	7h 57m	94%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHA 16:22 → DFW 17:44AA 2121	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	4h 32m	71%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON