Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4512 at 06:13, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4512 CHA 06:13 → ORD 07:35 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4512 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHA 06:13	ORD 07:35	15%	4%	1.6%	87%
UA 4540 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 06:00	ORD 06:59	14%	5%	0.0%	86%
UA 4407 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 10:27	ORD 11:29	20%	9%	1.3%	80%
UA 4571 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 13:53	ORD 14:55	31%	9%	2.8%	69%
UA 4434 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	CHA 19:07	ORD 20:12	33%	7%	12.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON