Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 39 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4637 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4637 MDW 05:10 → LAX 07:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 188 MDW 18:00 → LAX 20:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4637 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 05:10	LAX 07:25	4%	1%	0.6%	88%
UA 2361 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	LAX 09:33	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 1304 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	SNA 11:21	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
AA 607 American Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:20	12%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 2373 United Flight history →	ORD 06:00	LAX 08:27	13%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1556 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:29	LAX 10:00	13%	3%	0.5%	80%
AA 1628 American Flight history →	ORD 06:51	LAX 09:14	14%	4%	0.8%	70%
AA 2679 American Flight history →	ORD 08:14	SNA 10:33	15%	3%	0.7%	87%
WN 2741 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:05	BUR 12:25	15%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 2846 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 11:45	ONT 13:50	16%	4%	0.6%	55%
UA 1363 United Flight history →	ORD 13:00	LAX 15:34	16%	5%	0.6%	83%
UA 2814 United Flight history →	ORD 08:48	LAX 11:26	16%	3%	0.6%	82%
AA 2012 American Flight history →	ORD 08:10	LAX 10:35	17%	5%	0.8%	70%
UA 308 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	SNA 22:19	17%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1044 United Flight history →	ORD 10:30	LAX 13:09	18%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 1979 American Flight history →	ORD 09:00	LAX 11:21	18%	5%	0.8%	74%
WN 2433 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 10:10	LAX 12:30	18%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 374 United Flight history →	ORD 14:30	LAX 17:05	19%	7%	0.6%	80%
UA 1107 United Flight history →	ORD 16:20	SNA 18:52	19%	6%	0.6%	69%
AA 2718 American Flight history →	ORD 12:00	LAX 14:21	19%	8%	0.8%	73%
UA 576 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	LAX 18:20	20%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:42	LAX 17:14	20%	6%	0.5%	68%
UA 658 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	ONT 22:51	20%	8%	0.6%	60%
UA 2499 United Flight history →	ORD 20:18	LAX 22:55	21%	6%	0.5%	58%
UA 661 United Flight history →	ORD 21:30	LAX 00:09	22%	6%	0.6%	64%
WN 4413 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 13:15	LGB 15:30	22%	4%	0.6%	69%
UA 600 United Flight history →	ORD 16:45	LAX 19:16	22%	7%	0.6%	68%
AA 2640 American Flight history →	ORD 11:59	SNA 14:19	23%	6%	0.7%	73%
UA 1967 United Flight history →	ORD 18:10	LAX 20:40	23%	6%	0.5%	69%
DL 2298 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:35	LAX 21:12	26%	7%	0.5%	76%
AA 529 American Flight history →	ORD 15:21	LAX 17:43	27%	11%	0.7%	59%
AA 519 American Flight history →	ORD 17:05	SNA 19:27	28%	6%	0.7%	63%
AA 1209 American Flight history →	ORD 22:30	LAX 00:52	28%	9%	0.7%	53%
AA 1437 American Flight history →	ORD 17:10	LAX 19:33	29%	10%	0.7%	55%
AA 613 American Flight history →	ORD 20:49	LAX 23:13	30%	9%	0.7%	51%
F9 2445 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 21:13	LAX 23:57	31%	11%	2.2%	65%
AA 2364 American Flight history →	ORD 19:08	LAX 21:33	34%	10%	0.7%	59%
WN 3364 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 21:35	LAX 23:55	36%	6%	0.6%	36%
WN 188 Southwest Flight history →	MDW 18:00	LAX 20:20	37%	7%	0.6%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MDW 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2989	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → BUR 09:15WN 2929	6h 00m	97%	90%
Southwest Details →	MDW 05:20 → PHX 06:55WN 2858	55m Phoenix	PHX 07:50 → ONT 09:05WN 759	5h 45m	95%	89%
United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:42UA 2666	58m Denver	DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666	6h 07m	94%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON