tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 50 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1689 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1689 ORD 06:30 → IAD 09:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 1157 MDW 17:05 → DCA 19:55 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1689 United Flight history → ORD 06:30 IAD 09:24 4% 1% 0.6% 100%
AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 05:58 DCA 09:15 4% 2% 0.9% 84%
WN 4976 Southwest Flight history → MDW 06:00 DCA 08:45 4% 1% 0.7% 95%
WN 2742 Southwest Flight history → MDW 07:00 BWI 09:45 5% 1% 0.7% 91%
UA 1269 United Flight history → ORD 06:30 BWI 09:27 6% 2% 0.6% 94%
AA 3446 American flown by Envoy Flight history → ORD 06:51 BWI 09:58 6% 2% 0.9% 92%
WN 1355 Southwest Flight history → MDW 08:55 BWI 11:45 6% 1% 0.7% 90%
WN 2569 Southwest Flight history → MDW 08:15 DCA 11:10 7% 2% 0.6% 91%
UA 1077 United Flight history → ORD 06:00 DCA 08:54 7% 2% 0.7% 92%
UA 482 United Flight history → ORD 07:00 DCA 09:59 8% 3% 0.6% 86%
UA 2277 United Flight history → ORD 08:40 IAD 11:52 8% 2% 0.6% 92%
UA 382 United Flight history → ORD 08:00 DCA 11:01 10% 4% 0.6% 85%
AA 4809 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 10:45 DCA 13:59 10% 3% 0.8% 80%
UA 1869 United Flight history → ORD 11:07 IAD 14:12 10% 3% 0.6% 89%
AA 2965 American Flight history → ORD 07:02 DCA 10:03 10% 3% 0.9% 76%
UA 2653 United Flight history → ORD 10:51 BWI 13:57 11% 4% 0.6% 83%
WN 2744 Southwest Flight history → MDW 11:55 BWI 14:45 12% 3% 0.7% 73%
AA 2345 American Flight history → ORD 08:00 DCA 10:59 13% 4% 0.9% 77%
UA 1381 United Flight history → ORD 10:00 DCA 13:04 13% 4% 0.6% 86%
UA 2218 United Flight history → ORD 09:00 DCA 11:58 14% 4% 0.6% 72%
UA 2794 United Flight history → ORD 13:30 IAD 16:30 14% 6% 0.6% 76%
UA 2437 United Flight history → ORD 15:53 IAD 19:02 14% 6% 0.6% 71%
AA 4717 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 16:29 BWI 19:42 14% 7% 1.3% 61%
UA 2668 United Flight history → ORD 11:15 DCA 14:22 15% 6% 0.6% 69%
AA 4663 American flown by Republic Flight history → ORD 21:25 BWI 00:33 15% 5% 1.1% 79%
UA 752 United Flight history → ORD 12:45 DCA 15:52 15% 7% 0.7% 65%
UA 2766 United Flight history → ORD 21:40 IAD 00:45 15% 5% 0.6% 69%
UA 2124 United Flight history → ORD 14:30 BWI 17:36 16% 6% 0.6% 69%
UA 675 United Flight history → ORD 21:20 BWI 00:28 16% 6% 0.6% 60%
WN 1020 Southwest Flight history → MDW 14:30 BWI 17:25 16% 5% 0.7% 42%
AA 2398 American Flight history → ORD 09:42 DCA 12:44 17% 6% 0.9% 71%
UA 2202 United Flight history → ORD 18:12 IAD 21:22 18% 6% 0.6% 57%
UA 1314 United Flight history → ORD 14:00 DCA 17:12 18% 7% 0.7% 56%
WN 2761 Southwest Flight history → MDW 12:45 DCA 15:35 18% 5% 0.7% 75%
UA 456 United Flight history → ORD 17:00 DCA 20:10 20% 8% 0.7% 59%
UA 440 United Flight history → ORD 18:20 BWI 21:26 20% 7% 0.6% 51%
UA 1941 United Flight history → ORD 15:00 DCA 18:12 20% 7% 0.7% 66%
AA 1187 American Flight history → ORD 20:55 DCA 23:59 20% 8% 0.9% 58%
WN 2746 Southwest Flight history → MDW 20:50 BWI 23:50 20% 6% 0.8% 49%
UA 2160 United Flight history → ORD 19:45 DCA 22:54 20% 6% 0.6% 56%
UA 1369 United Flight history → ORD 18:00 DCA 21:10 21% 8% 0.6% 50%
WN 1294 Southwest Flight history → MDW 11:15 DCA 14:00 21% 5% 0.6% 56%
UA 5552 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ORD 16:00 DCA 19:17 22% 11% 1.5% 56%
WN 4616 Southwest Flight history → MDW 17:20 BWI 20:15 23% 6% 0.7% 44%
AA 1675 American Flight history → ORD 13:20 DCA 16:25 23% 9% 0.9% 59%
WN 1172 Southwest Flight history → MDW 20:10 DCA 23:05 23% 8% 0.7% 31%
WN 2745 Southwest Flight history → MDW 19:00 BWI 21:55 26% 6% 0.7% 66%
AA 1787 American Flight history → ORD 17:55 DCA 20:59 26% 11% 1.1% 55%
AA 2769 American Flight history → ORD 14:55 DCA 18:00 27% 8% 0.9% 74%
WN 1157 Southwest Flight history → MDW 17:05 DCA 19:55 32% 10% 0.7% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON