Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 1140 at 13:30, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1140 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 13:30	AUS 15:10	25%	5%	0.7%	50%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CHS 06:25 → BNA 06:55WN 1141	1h 05m Nashville	BNA 08:00 → AUS 10:10WN 4149	4h 45m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	5h 17m	98%	88%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688	6h 59m	98%	86%
American Details →	CHS 07:01 → DFW 08:58AA 1553	3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:20 → AUS 13:25AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	7h 24m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 48m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:20 → ATL 08:36DL 1664	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	6h 05m	98%	84%
American Details →	CHS 06:41 → CLT 07:47AA 3235	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → AUS 12:15AA 1419	6h 34m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → AUS 13:54DL 2104	5h 13m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CHS 17:40 → DEN 19:25WN 1145	1h 25m Denver	DEN 20:50 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 1481	7h 30m	72%	54%
American Details →	CHS 18:17 → CLT 19:40AA 5672 · flown by PSA	49m Charlotte	CLT 20:29 → AUS 22:17AA 434	5h 00m	72%	50%
American Details →	CHS 19:53 → DFW 21:48AA 1662	1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588	4h 58m	73%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON