Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 23–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 68 CHS 13:05 → BOS 15:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest B6 2468 CHS 17:19 → BOS 19:42 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 68 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 13:05	BOS 15:30	23%	14%	0.8%	72%
DL 2785 Delta Flight history →	CHS 15:35	BOS 18:04	24%	11%	1.0%	67%
B6 2468 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 17:19	BOS 19:42	31%	18%	0.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON