Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1090 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1090 CHS 07:15 → BWI 08:50 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1144 CHS 19:35 → BWI 21:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1090 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 07:15	BWI 08:50	4%	1%	0.9%	96%
WN 1143 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 10:35	BWI 12:10	6%	2%	1.0%	88%
WN 470 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 16:10	BWI 17:45	21%	7%	0.7%	41%
WN 1144 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 19:35	BWI 21:20	24%	7%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON