Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3298 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3298 CHS 05:00 → CLT 06:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 5086 CHS 19:50 → CLT 21:10 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3298 American Flight history →	CHS 05:00	CLT 06:01	7%	3%	2.4%	98%
AA 3235 American Flight history →	CHS 06:41	CLT 07:47	11%	3%	1.5%	88%
AA 1666 American Flight history →	CHS 10:52	CLT 12:01	13%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 1658 American Flight history →	CHS 13:00	CLT 14:11	19%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 5672 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 18:17	CLT 19:40	22%	7%	1.1%	73%
AA 5118 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 15:12	CLT 16:30	23%	7%	1.2%	63%
AA 5086 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 19:50	CLT 21:10	26%	8%	1.2%	56%
AA 5817 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 08:48	CLT 10:15	7%	0%	0.0%	93%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON