Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 45 at 15:15, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 45 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 15:15	DAL 16:50	31%	4%	0.7%	46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	5h 11m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	CHS 06:25 → BNA 06:55WN 1141	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → DAL 10:00WN 486	4h 35m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	6h 09m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	CHS 08:00 → MDW 09:15WN 4167	3h 05m Chicago	MDW 12:20 → DAL 14:35WN 2757	7h 35m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	CHS 09:41 → ATL 11:00DL 5450 · flown by Endeavor	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	6h 22m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	CHS 10:35 → BWI 12:10WN 1143	2h 05m Baltimore	BWI 14:15 → DAL 16:15WN 932	6h 40m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 25m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	CHS 13:05 → ATL 14:20DL 3107	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	5h 49m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CHS 13:30 → AUS 15:10WN 1140	55m Austin	AUS 16:05 → DAL 17:15WN 277	4h 45m	69%	52%
Southwest Details →	CHS 17:40 → DEN 19:25WN 1145	1h 05m Denver	DEN 20:30 → DAL 23:30WN 1523	6h 50m	66%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON