Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3089 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 3089 CHS 06:00 → DCA 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1654 CHS 19:51 → DCA 21:30 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3089 American Flight history →	CHS 06:00	DCA 07:35	6%	4%	1.8%	97%
AA 4584 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 16:15	DCA 17:59	13%	5%	1.4%	58%
AA 5659 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 10:45	DCA 12:32	16%	8%	2.1%	64%
AA 5123 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 14:10	DCA 15:59	22%	9%	2.3%	61%
AA 1654 American Flight history →	CHS 19:51	DCA 21:30	23%	8%	0.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON