tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Denver on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2757 United Flight history → CHS 16:16 DEN 18:11 22% 6% 0.6% 57%
WN 1145 Southwest Flight history → CHS 17:40 DEN 19:25 34% 6% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CHS 17:00 → IAH 18:55UA 6329 · flown by Mesa 3h 15m Houston IAH 22:10 → DEN 23:57UA 1066 8h 57m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 07:25 → DEN 08:34DL 2235 5h 24m 97% 86%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 06:25 → BNA 06:55WN 1141 1h 00m Nashville BNA 07:55 → DEN 09:40WN 499 5h 15m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333 1h 07m Chicago ORD 08:40 → DEN 10:31UA 526 6h 31m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995 6h 50m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289 3h 56m Newark EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13UA 1999 10h 13m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → CHS 14:47 → IAD 16:33UA 3401 · flown by Republic 2h 47m Dulles IAD 19:20 → DEN 21:27UA 2667 8h 40m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → CHS 07:20 → ATL 08:36DL 1664 3h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:55 → DEN 13:00DL 706 7h 40m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → CHS 18:43 → DTW 20:45DL 2676 51m Detroit DTW 21:36 → DEN 22:44DL 1644 6h 01m 65% 52%
UnitedDetails → CHS 19:46 → IAD 21:30UA 4322 · flown by CommuteAir 53m Dulles IAD 22:23 → DEN 00:30 +1UA 495 6h 44m 58% 48%
AmericanDetails → CHS 15:42 → DFW 17:39AA 1656 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235 5h 59m 60% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON