Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1553 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1553 CHS 07:01 → DFW 08:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 1662 CHS 19:53 → DFW 21:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1553 American Flight history →	CHS 07:01	DFW 08:58	11%	4%	1.4%	97%
AA 5396 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CHS 12:58	DFW 14:50	20%	7%	1.1%	87%
AA 1656 American Flight history →	CHS 15:42	DFW 17:39	26%	9%	1.0%	65%
AA 1662 American Flight history →	CHS 19:53	DFW 21:48	28%	8%	1.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON