tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 356 at 12:00, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 356 Southwest Flight history → CHS 12:00 HOU 13:30 16% 3% 1.4% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509 5h 35m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 06:25 → BNA 06:55WN 1141 1h 05m Nashville BNA 08:00 → HOU 10:05WN 532 4h 40m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195 6h 55m 99% 83%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 08:00 → MDW 09:15WN 4167 55m Chicago MDW 10:10 → HOU 12:50WN 2783 5h 50m 94% 82%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 07:15 → BWI 08:50WN 1090 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 10:00 → HOU 12:15WN 956 6h 00m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381 6h 04m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051 5h 51m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → CHS 12:58 → DFW 14:50AA 5396 · flown by PSA 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:56 → HOU 18:19AA 6385 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 100% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CHS 15:42 → DFW 17:39AA 1656 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy 5h 11m 65% 48%
AmericanDetails → CHS 19:53 → DFW 21:48AA 1662 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA 5h 03m 64% 48%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 17:40 → DEN 19:25WN 1145 1h 00m Denver DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55WN 2026 7h 15m 66% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON