Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 434 at 06:50, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 434 United Flight history →	CHS 06:50	IAH 08:21	8%	3%	1.5%	88%
UA 6329 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 17:00	IAH 18:55	18%	9%	0.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	CHS 08:56 → ORD 10:30AA 3027	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 13:35 → IAH 16:31AA 4426 · flown by Republic	8h 35m	100%	85%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638	8h 23m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682	7h 04m	100%	84%
United Details →	CHS 06:00 → EWR 07:59UA 1289	2h 54m Newark	EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556	8h 38m	99%	83%
American Details →	CHS 08:48 → CLT 10:15AA 5817 · flown by Piedmont	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 12:30 → IAH 14:12AA 1919	6h 24m	100%	82%
United Details →	CHS 11:31 → ORD 13:10UA 592	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714	8h 39m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	CHS 07:20 → ATL 08:36DL 1664	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 13m	99%	82%
United Details →	CHS 10:00 → IAD 11:37UA 1858	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 12:50 → IAH 15:11UA 1535	6h 11m	94%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CHS 12:44 → ORD 14:18AA 2452	49m Chicago	ORD 15:07 → IAH 18:01AA 1913	6h 17m	71%	52%
American Details →	CHS 15:42 → DFW 17:39AA 1656	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:36 → IAH 19:54AA 1392	5h 12m	69%	46%
United Details →	CHS 19:46 → IAD 21:30UA 4322 · flown by CommuteAir	50m Dulles	IAD 22:20 → IAH 00:45 +1UA 1986	5h 59m	56%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON