Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: B6 2474 at 10:58 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34%.

Safest bet that day B6 2474 CHS 10:58 → JFK 12:59 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest B6 1274 CHS 20:47 → JFK 22:52 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 2474 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 10:58	JFK 12:59	15%	6%	1.7%	78%
B6 1274 JetBlue Flight history →	CHS 20:47	JFK 22:52	34%	14%	1.5%	67%
DL 5445 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 06:00	JFK 08:01	9%	5%	1.0%	91%
DL 5015 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 12:47	JFK 15:00	24%	9%	5.3%	76%
DL 5200 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 17:34	JFK 19:54	24%	15%	7.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON