Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4586 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4586 CHS 06:41 → LGA 08:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1404 CHS 15:42 → LGA 17:48 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4586 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 06:41	LGA 08:48	6%	3%	3.2%	94%
AA 4614 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 12:05	LGA 14:15	11%	5%	1.6%	79%
AA 4588 American flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 18:10	LGA 20:20	22%	10%	1.9%	71%
DL 5591 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	CHS 18:21	LGA 20:30	23%	10%	2.0%	66%
DL 1404 Delta Flight history →	CHS 15:42	LGA 17:48	32%	12%	2.0%	63%
DL 5093 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 07:00	LGA 09:00	16%	7%	7.7%	84%
DL 5437 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CHS 11:25	LGA 13:27	20%	8%	3.2%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON