Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4167 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4167 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 08:00	MDW 09:15	5%	1%	1.4%	91%
WN 4787 Southwest Flight history →	CHS 17:55	MDW 19:10	19%	5%	0.6%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CHS 06:25 → BNA 06:55WN 1141	3h 50m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575	6h 55m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:09 → MDW 10:05DL 1063	5h 55m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 41m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	CHS 11:18 → ATL 12:27DL 3091	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	5h 57m	98%	81%
Southwest Details →	CHS 07:15 → BWI 08:50WN 1090	3h 40m Baltimore	BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435	7h 15m	96%	80%
Southwest Details →	CHS 10:35 → BWI 12:10WN 1143	3h 55m Baltimore	BWI 16:05 → MDW 17:10WN 997	7h 35m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	CHS 17:00 → ATL 18:19DL 1381	2h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 15m	98%	78%
Southwest Details →	CHS 13:55 → BNA 14:30WN 899	1h 45m Nashville	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	4h 55m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	CHS 17:40 → DEN 19:25WN 1145	1h 25m Denver	DEN 20:50 → MDW 00:15 +1WN 1615	7h 35m	72%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON