tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, DL 2463 at 15:10, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2463 Delta Flight history → CHS 15:10 MSP 17:10 17% 5% 0.7% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Charleston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CHS 05:10 → ATL 06:17DL 3055 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 08:44 → MSP 10:18DL 2960 6h 08m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 06:25 → BNA 06:55WN 1141 1h 15m Nashville BNA 08:10 → MSP 10:15WN 2160 4h 50m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:00 → JFK 08:01DL 5445 · flown by Endeavor 3h 34m New York JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414 8h 50m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → CHS 06:15 → ATL 07:25DL 2124 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090 6h 16m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → CHS 06:00 → ORD 07:33UA 2333 1h 17m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MSP 10:36UA 2805 5h 36m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → CHS 06:00 → DCA 07:35AA 3089 2h 55m Washington DCA 10:30 → MSP 12:20AA 3796 · flown by Envoy 7h 20m 100% 87%
SouthwestDetails → CHS 08:00 → MDW 09:15WN 4167 1h 00m Chicago MDW 10:15 → MSP 11:45WN 2869 4h 45m 95% 85%
AmericanDetails → CHS 08:56 → ORD 10:30AA 3027 3h 10m Chicago ORD 13:40 → MSP 15:29AA 4727 · flown by Republic 7h 33m 100% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CHS 21:20 → BNA 21:50WN 1142 55m Nashville BNA 22:45 → MSP 00:55 +1WN 968 4h 35m 74% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON